HERE’S PROOF! Here’s how our strategy can work for you! We have detailed several examples below showing how this proven approach of ours is applied in practice and how it is consistent in producing some excellent results.
This is the professional theme you’ll find outlined throughout these pages and in our betting products and learning programs. The strategy works! The Results are real!
Our strategy will do this again and again. It produces long priced winners time and time again … and it will do it for you too. Our strategy will show you how to identify these kind of winners and how to apply a strategy – our professional strategy – that makes these kind of winners no surprise, and well worth the effort .
And it will do it for you regularly.
Here’s another excellent example of how our professional strategy can get GOOD results!
Race 5 at Randwick, 25 June, 2005. The Thakral Holdings/B. Hawke Handicap over 1600 metres. An open handicap race for 3yo’s and upwards with 10 starters.
Looking at the field we found that only 4 of the 10 starters, The Man, Our Highlander, Our Day Tripper and Flash Phantom, were considered as up to this open class event. The remainder had only displayed ability at country meetings or lower class events.
Our Highlander was our first choice with The Man and Flash Phantom (regardless of his age) as our second and third choice.
Zagalia and Ashkalante were scratched but had no effect on our selections.
Our Highlander started favourite at around $2.60 after opening around $1.80. This price was far too short and offered little value. The Man started around $6.00 and Flash Phantom at around $16.00 after $21.00 was available.
Surprisingly, Pont du Gard started at $2.70 for what reason we couldn’t determine because Pont Du Gard has never won a race in open company. But it must have taken some support and that may have accounted for the good prices for Flash Phantom.
Flash Phantom held off a challenge from Lorenzo to win well at 16/1. The Man came in third with the others, Pont du Gard and Our Highlander not gaining a place.
How did we come to choose Flash Phantom?
How did we come to choose an aged gelding over much younger and apparently in form horses?
Our strategy will show you how to identify these kind of winners and how to repeat this kind of magic time and time again.
Race 7 at Rosehill, 4 June, 2005. The Rooty Hill RSL Club Resort Hcp over 2000 metres. An open handicap race with 13 starters.
Looking at the field we found that only 5 of the 13 starters were up to this class of race. They were So Assertive, Xlerate, Verb, Institution and Racers Success. Surprisingly Legendary Man, (a 3YO with little experience in open company) started favourite at around 3/1. The remainder were completely outclassed and were discarded as having any reasonable chance.
Our three top selection for this race in order were Xlerate, Verb and So Assertive. Xlerate started around 4/1 which was quite a good price. Verb opened in the betting at around 16/1 and blew out to 30/1. So Assertive opened around 30/1 and drifted out from there.
These excellent prices were no doubt the result of support for Legendary Man, which we regarded as a false favourite and not a good bet.
Legendary Man came 3rd at $3.60, Xlerate came 2nd at $5.00 and Verb finished a decisive 1st at odds of 30/1.
At those prices we could have backed all three of our selections. But we didn’t. We were satisfied with just two because we know this is how our strategy performs.
Looking at the field of eight, we find the favourite was Dance Hero, a gelding with only three runs to his credit as a 3 year old, one of which was 3YO Group 2 win over 1200 metres at Randwick and trained by Gai Waterhouse at that track.
Very impressive and hard to go past.
Of the remainder only Outback Prince, Eremein and Western Beau had the experience to compete successfully at this level. Almost every tipster had Dance Hero as their number one choice and was obviously supported by punters as he started a heavily backed favourite at $1.45. Most would have found it hard to go past Dance Hero. But let’s look at this race more closely.
The true professional looks for value as well as class and Dance Hero was, in my opinion, a little under raced and the odds unacceptable. Outback Prince, on the other hand and although not having won a race as a 3YO was well experienced at this level.
Our first three selections for this race in order were Dance Hero, Outback Prince and Eremein, the class horses in the field but how do you separate them? Eremein started at $6.50 and came in second, Dance Hero came third (it seemed he could not handle the distance and was not race fit) and Outback Prince won at $20.00! Those odds for Outback Prince and Eremein made by-passing the short priced favourite well worthwhile.
Our strategy seeks out the horses that represents both class and value. It transcends the hype and general opinion. When you have a choice like Dance Hero, our strategy recognises that many shorts odds favourites do not perform on the day. And there are 101 reason why not and, as we all know, anything can go wrong during a race.
We look for the most likely one to beat the favourite.
Although Dance Hero had some advantage, we could not support it at that price. Anything can happen in a race and the factors that go with a short price favourite kicked in like we thought they would.
The result was another good win with Outback Prince at $20.00.
That’s what the papers were saying the morning after the running of the Queen Elizabeth Stakes at Randwick on April 17th, 2004, a Group 1 race with prizemoney of $800,000!
Lonhro’s defeat was a disappointment to us all and it spoiled a magical day. Connections in tears, a leading jockey in disgrace and punters … well, one was reported as having lost two million dollars on that race alone!
But let’s back up a little.
Before the race most feature writers and form analysts were singing Lonhro’s praises. Every newspaper tipster had Lonhro as their number one choice. Most punters felt the same as he started a heavily backed favourite at $1.26. It would be a brave punter to go past Lonhro. But anything can happen in a race, particularly a Weight for Age event and in this case the unexpected occurred.
Or did it?
The result is history now.
And unfortunately, with the dynamics of racing being what they are, the jockey has to wear most of the blame.
But is that really fair?
Lonhro was beaten fair and square by a better horse on the day.
Regardless of jockey tactics, strategies and other hype Lonhro was simply poor value and a poor bet.
The connections, the newspapers, the punter with too much money and other so-called experts failed to understand this and looked for blame elsewhere than within themselves.
When it comes to betting on horses there is no room for sentiment or emotional hang-ups.
Lonhro was indeed a class horse and our top selection. But in the wash up leading to the race, our strategy pointed us to the much better valued choice.
Our Strategy presented us with Grand Armee. A good winner at $7.50 and proving once again our professional strategy really works!
Looking at the field, we find the favourite was Thorn Park, a 4 year old horse with one Group 3 win to his credit and the added advantage of training on this controversial all weather track.
Here’s what the papers and some feature form analysts said about the favourite Thorn Park “… will pistol whip the field”, “… no risk”, and one radio commentator said “Thorn Park will win … for certain!” Almost every newspaper tipster had Thorn Park as their number one choice. No doubt most punters felt the same as he started a heavily backed favourite at $1.75. Most would have found it hard to go past Thorn Park.
But let’s look at this race more closely.
The true professional looks for value as well as class and Thorn Park was really rising in class. Those odds are unacceptable against proven performers. I sometimes wonder how these odds are formed but often, it seems to be a case of “follow the leader”. But our strategy seeks out the horses that represents both class and value. It transcends the hype and general opinion. When you have a choice like Thorn Park, our strategy recognises that many shorts odds favourites do not perform on the day.
And there are 101 reason why not and, as we all know, anything can go wrong during a race. Our strategy looks for the most likely one to beat the favourite.
Our first three selections for this race in order were Excellerator, Thorn Park and Sportsman. Yes, the class horses in the field but how do you separate them? Excellerator started at $16.00 and came in third, Thorn Park second (which, as it turned out, was quite a good performance) and Sportsman. Sportsman won at $19.00! Those odds for Excellerator and Sportsman were simply amazing.
Although Thorn Park had a some advantage, we could not support it at that price. Anything can happen in a WFA race and the dynamics that go with a short price favourite kicked in like we thought they would.
The result was a good win with Sportsman at $19.00